Monday, March 23, 2015

Thoughts about Raising the Minimum Wage


Anyone comparing the price of higher education from the late 1970s to that of today as an argument to raise the minimum wage is either ignorant or intellectually dishonest. Education costs have increased 7% annually since the early 80s. Said increase is not correlated to the rise of inflation (averaging 3.2%), but rather complex reasons, reasons dealing with higher education being  subsidized by various entities.
Seems that Federal minimum in 1978 was $2.65. It had just increased from $2.30, which is 15.21% increase. The following year, it increased a more modest 9.43% to $2.90, followed by a 6.9% increase in 1980 to $3.10 and by a 8% increase in 1981 to $3.35. 
Collectively, that's a 45.6% increase over a 5-year period.
The next batch of raises to minimum wage occurred in 1990 and 1991 to $3.80 (13.4%) and $4.25 (11.8%), respectfully, for another collective increase of 26.9%. Interestingly, George HW Bush was president during this time, and he was not re-elected in '92 partly due to a recession.
Weird coincidence that recessions occurred following these periods of wage increase. Weirder still that minimum wage was last bumped up a collective 40% (from $5.15 to present $7.25) during a 3-year span starting in July of 2007 and finishing July of 2009, strangely correlating with the Great Recession of '08.
Regardless of my above nonsense with numbers and such, calculating what today's minimum wage should be relative to inflation of an annual increase of 3.2% means the person making $2.65/hr back in 1978 should be making roughly $8.50/hr now. But to be more intectually honest given where I got my inflation number, take the minimum wage from 1982 of $3.35/hr and calulate inflation from then to present figures to $9.47/hr.
So, I guess a raise in minimum wage is in order, but it's not going to mean a summer job will pay for a year of college as predicated in the argument. I did the math, and using said logic, minimum wage should be like $35 an hour.

Sources consulted:

  • http://www.nasfaa.org/advocacy/perspectives/articles/Myths_and_Realities_about_Rising_College_Tuition.aspx
  • http://www.dol.gov/whd/minwage/chart.htm
  • http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d06/tables/dt06_319.asp
  • http://www.forumoecon.com/forumoecon/pearchives/political/poleconarticle2print.pdf
  • http://www.calculatorpro.com/calculator/salary-calculator/
Articles on raising minimum wage to $15/hr:

  • http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/may/19/la-minimum-wage-rise-vote

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