Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Is Charlie Sheen still alive?

I started to think about a movie in which Charlie Sheen appeared... so I wondered if he's still alive.
I was thinking about Richard Dawson  randomly one day only to hear of his death the next. Same goes for the fellow on M.A.S.H. who was replaced by the guy with a moustache.
Meh. Life being a simulation would explain a lot.

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

recession?

What exactly has Congress done to stave off a recession? Feels like 2007 all over again in the sense that Speaker Pelosi is meh about everything but taking out the President.
Most people will blame whomever they feel like blaming as long as they are on the other side, which is why having a split government actually favors Trump's re-election.
What has Pelosi and Co. done since being in charge of the purse strings?
I expect Trump to change a little, but enough to make opposition to his narrative to seem deranged or simply too"un-American."
He can highlight the trade war on American products espoused by deranged members of the "resistance" who think boycotting xyz and threatening violence against supporters of those brands as being more problematic that troll farms buying dubious ads on Facebook during the '16 campaign.
Having a recession now is too soon to swing an election against Trump, he has the means to fight back by pointing to a "do nothing"congress.

Sunday, August 11, 2019

predicting events 2 months in advance

Back in June, I threw out the idea that my gold mutual fund could easily increase in value by $5... to $24.59. I said other things, but I'm a hedger more than a gambler, so I made trades before my target price was met.
It's impossible to time the market. I sold off 95 shares prematurely, it seems, but I still made a profit... just not as much. I moved the goal posts to what my break even amount would be to $29.67. I feel it's a lofty amount considering Brexit in 2016 didn't push it that high, though it had been $43.10 back on 9/27/2012.
Do I see another 20% jump within the year as possible? Yes.
The "trade war" with China hasn't really hurt the economy, yet interest rates were cut last week. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson will be in charge of the UK government as it navigates the Brexit stuff that May never completed.
If you don't remember 2012, well, the economy was doing fair... but the fiscal cliff was looming.
I've been tempted to sell, almost daily. I've not succeeded in stopping myself enough, but I have been good of late.
My gut tell me that I could hold out for $29.67, but my brain says the market can bounce back. and kill off the gold rally. The hedge has cut my potential losses by accepting actual gains of 20%, and hoard cash in case it dips or invest it in a mostly stable monthly dividend yielding fund. The latter makes more sense since I can't do a quick re-buy after selling without paying a penalty fee.

Sunday, July 21, 2019

patience is hard

I've been very active with my 401(k) and IRA... and I know I should not be. I should tweek quarterly at most, yet I monitor ups and downs daily.
I really want to unload the mutual fund I bought back when I thought the world was coming to an end, but I don't want to take a true loss. It's a hedge to keep since I know it once was double or nearly triple its current value, but I really don't want to hold on for another 6 years when I have other options that are growing via dividend and capital gains regardless of what the markets says the mutual fund itself is worth.

Monday, June 24, 2019

$2K incease in Fidelity IRA in last 12 months

Gold is doing something while the markets are being randomly good and bad.
Gold can go up a lot from where it is now (doubling isn't too crazy, considering my mutual fund is way under the $43.10 I once bought it), while the market the fund is within is at it's top.
I have watch lists of mutual funds that give reliable dividends and capital gains. I'm shifting towards quarterly yielding ones from a single monthly. There are a few monthly yielding funds I'm testing to see which is the best long term.
I have also researched a few semi annual dividend yielding ones that interestingly fills in the June gap missed by the  April-July-October-December funds, but gives a certain dilemma in December. 
I am hopeful of adding $2k in my IRA by the end of the year. A 10% gain in 6 months is beyond my control, but I'm watching. I'm tired of holding gold that can vary too frequently without any guarantee of growth.

Monday, June 10, 2019

gold

I have a bad hobby of following my IRA. I have been looking toward diversifying my account into multiple dividend yielding mutual funds, but I'm still mostly invested in a gold related mutual fund. I am not the sort of person who looks at sunk costs easily. Gold was doing well when I first got into it at bargain $43.10 a share. It jumped to above $55 before sinking to $15.90 a couple years later. A couple years later, Brexit bumped the fund above $27, so I was above break even due to my buying and holding throughout the dive.  I got greedy and didn't sell it all off to break even, only to see the dip of $15.37 last year. I bought up the same amount of shares I sold in 2016 and sold off gradually after it hit upper $19. I was selling at 5 shares a day so I'm not making big returns beyond 30%, but I'm seeding my diversification towards year-round growth. Current break even amount seems to be roughly $23.50, but I'm thinking done selling until it hits $24.59. I'll hold, I've held on for nearly 7 years, I can wait out another 7, I reckon... but the chance for growth by converted to growth funds makes me want to cut chunks now that will grow quicker without having to hope for market flukes.
I read last week that tariffs have been blamed for loss of earnings made from the tax cut. Of course, the market crashed a bit a few days straight only to bounce back.
I doubt a $5 jump will come, but interest rate cuts seem to suggest gold will be  increasing in value throughout the summer.

Sunday, June 9, 2019

Virgos

I don't believe horoscopes to be anything significant, but I can usually spot a Virgo.
A guy at work seems a bit like me in various ways... ways that are generic Virgo qualities, so I figured he was a Virgo. So I  asked him. He is a Virgo, barely.
I once worked at a library where 9 of 12 staff members were Virgos.
Seems too weird to be a mere coincidence...