Sunday, August 11, 2019

predicting events 2 months in advance

Back in June, I threw out the idea that my gold mutual fund could easily increase in value by $5... to $24.59. I said other things, but I'm a hedger more than a gambler, so I made trades before my target price was met.
It's impossible to time the market. I sold off 95 shares prematurely, it seems, but I still made a profit... just not as much. I moved the goal posts to what my break even amount would be to $29.67. I feel it's a lofty amount considering Brexit in 2016 didn't push it that high, though it had been $43.10 back on 9/27/2012.
Do I see another 20% jump within the year as possible? Yes.
The "trade war" with China hasn't really hurt the economy, yet interest rates were cut last week. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson will be in charge of the UK government as it navigates the Brexit stuff that May never completed.
If you don't remember 2012, well, the economy was doing fair... but the fiscal cliff was looming.
I've been tempted to sell, almost daily. I've not succeeded in stopping myself enough, but I have been good of late.
My gut tell me that I could hold out for $29.67, but my brain says the market can bounce back. and kill off the gold rally. The hedge has cut my potential losses by accepting actual gains of 20%, and hoard cash in case it dips or invest it in a mostly stable monthly dividend yielding fund. The latter makes more sense since I can't do a quick re-buy after selling without paying a penalty fee.

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