end of year rollercoaster

The stock market is down one day then down some more then starts to bounce... could be the summary of '18. Jobs exist. Unemployment is low, so pain isn't abundant. Speculation abounds... the Fed hiking rates means market unease.
The first tax return checks from the tax cut have yet to cut, so I expect a stimulus for much of the country. 2020 Census will create jobs as well.
Nancy Pelosi being speaker again, will give Trump a foil. Trump had no one to attack aside from the media and cop killing illegal immigrants, so any economic malaise will be blamed on Pelosi.
Finalizing trade deals will linger. When they resolve... another stimulus will be unleashed.
Price of fuel has dropped drastically. The Middle East, Russia, and Venezuela aren't benefiting.
The price of gold hasn't gone up drastically like it did immediately after Brexit, so there's a certain stability in that we're nowhere near the economic climate of  its peaks in '11.

thoughts about Miami falling into the ocean from rising ocean and hurricanes

My wife was watching something on engineering with relation to Miami being in danger of rising sea levels and hurricanes.
They glossed over hurricanes as waves originating from the coasts of Africa and turning violent from the change in water temperature of the Gulf of Mexico.
Perhaps there would be less hurricanes if there were land masses between Africa and the Gulf of Mexico or if the latter's water temperature was less of contrast to the waves originating from the African coast.
Not sure how to regulate the temperature of the Gulf of Mexico, but canals to the Pacific Ocean could be made and the displaced dirt could be dumped into the ocean to disrupt those currents from the African coast.
Rising sea levels is interesting since it suggests ice melting at the poles.
Perhaps displacing existing ocean water towards inhabitable deserts could lower the sea levels?

will Pelosi news further crash the markets?

The markets shrugged when Trump was on indictment watch back in August. Ever since the beginning of 2018, the markets has been up and down in drastic cycles of weeks. Nancy Pelosi was Speaker of the House during the entire "Great Recession," so I wonder if the recent plunges relate to the house being "blue" the next couple years. A significant number of candidates ran opposed to having her being Speaker again, but she seems to be converting a few to her side.

I have a dilemma. Do I sell off SPHIX and buy more FSAGX? I still expect the latter to swell, while SPHIX has been falling. The dividends of SPHIX make the value dip a moot point at the moment. I might sell FSAGX sooner if it hits marks I consider safe returns rather than mere greed expectation. A 25% return may be my new target, since I expect the market to rebound once the benefits of the tax cuts are truly felt in February into Spring.

Systems vs Goals

It's been a couple years since I read How to Fail, perhaps I need to re-read it? I'm not quite the same person, but I am very much the same in many ways.
I had hoped I could be followed by Scott Adams on Twitter, but no one follows me beyond my static 74 followers I've had since forever ago. I am, as of Tuesday, connected on Linkedin with Mr. Adams.
I admire Scott. He is wealthy and famous regardless of his mostly humble beginnings. Probably one of the few people I would ever think it would be cool to meet.

new insurance is same as the old insurance

When we got married, we had Grange. I didn't have a car, but the wife did. She had the same insurance company as everyone in her family. We got renter's insurance and then added another car. Home insurance wasn't much.
Everything was fine until I totalled her car. Rates for auto jumped a bit. Home owner's kept going up as well.
Three years after my accident, I shopped around and saved a ton on both. A few years later, rates were up again but they jumped after we made a claim for our roof after a storm. We switched companies, and again we saved a ton. Rates were reasonable for auto but home rates crept up. After we made a claim for the auto, rates stayed same but went up after another accident. Nothing major at first, but the rates jumped two years later.
I normally wait until 3 years after an accident to consider switching, but unreasonable hikes mean I have nothing to lose thus no reason not to shop.
Got a couple quotes from plugging info into sites, and got calls from one place.
I was going to check more sites but one guy I contacted to followup when I couldn't get a home quote online saved me some leg work since he reps multiple companies.
He ran my info through 6 companies and the one I expected was the one he quoted me
I'm back with my last insurance company. Considering my auto rates were going up $400+ a year and my new rate is $400 less a year than what it was, I'm happy. Happier that my home owner's insurance is $600 less a year, so I am saving $1,000 from just last year.
It's like giving myself a Christmas bonus.

spending money to make money

Ibotta and Checkout 51 are 2 of my hobbies. Tracking the cashback rewards from my various credit cards is another.
I will never get rich by spending money and getting rebates/cashback, but it is money I get for doing nothing taxable.
I will be credit card debt free one day. We've carried a debt long before we bought our house. It has gone down a lot, but stuff happened and it bounced back up.
I think we're technically still paying off our trip to Disney from '11.
No interest, since I take out new cards and can transfer without fees most of the time.
I sweet the small stuff now so I can work towards something grand.
I will break down our cash flow one day for it amazes me how easy it is to have opportunity to make more cashback.

accusations and truth aren't always the same

Accusations of rape are serious.
A friend of mine once told me about being at a college party and waking up to a guy trying to get into her pants. I was appalled and asked if she was okay. She didn't seem too bothered. Said the guy was more afraid of having his coach finding out.
I had known her since she was in HS. My dad had me run with her while I was home on spring break my freshman year. Something about the way she spoke made me think she was different from most people from my hometown. I had my dad give her my address and we soon started writing each other.
I still have the letters. They're well over 20 years old now. She ceased writing after she had an AOL account.
I used to write quite a bit. I loved getting mail. Not sure what I wrote, but I would get replies to which I replied.
I miss writing, but I associate the act with smoking. I think I used to smoke my camels mostly when I wrote. I didn't smoke much beyond a half a pack a day at most.
I never smoked around my parents. Sometimes I miss smoking, but I think I miss the solitude I associate with it.
Regardless, my friend was 16 when I got to know her. I forget when it happened, but I was visiting her once and her mom went nuts. Turned out my zipper was down, so she thought she walked in on something. Frustrating, given I had no sexual intentions toward her daughter. I had an obsession with someone else and was a virgin.
I was always passive with regards to kissing and such. I was content with being a guy friend. I never dated. I just went along with circumstances. I had no idea what I wanted from a partner until I found myself someone who knew me better than I knew myself. Life isn't perfect, but we have a fair understanding of each other.
I quit smoking and consuming alcohol because of my wife. She frowns upon those habits.
People who know me know would never guess I ever drank like I did during my college days.
I don't think I should be considered the same person, either.

Nothing seems to matter for too long

Given the circus portrayal of the Trump administration, how is it anything gets done?
Obviously, smoke and mirrors... President Trump tweets and golfs too much to actually be doing anything meaningful, right?
The media has given him a pass on little things but are being absurd on larger things. He probably gave Senator John McCain cancer. He created Florence. People are dying, regardless of tragedy or old age.
News cycle has become tabloid-like. It'll be interesting how history enshrines this golden age.
Just imagine how everything will be once the vicious news cycle ends and gets back to dull everyday reporting of events without mind reading or demonizing groups by lumping them with other groups that share a single overlapping interest.

an update on my Fidelity IRA hobby.

Last month, I said that I expected the my Fidelity mutual fund for gold to dip to $15.37 and that it was undervalued whenever it was beneath $18.50.

It hit $15.39 and I was tempted to buy the allotted amount of shares I had sold back in in 2016 when it was well above $27, but I told myself $15.37 was the magic number to go all in. I sold 5 SPHIX to buy FSAGX, and the price dropped to $15.36. I hedged that it may jump, so sold 85 SPHIX  to buy FSAGX. I was correct. I figured it would slide again, so I sold another 25 SPHIX to buy FSAGX. It dropped a few cents, so I figure another 25 SPHIX is safe to sell for more FSAGX. The stock market is strong and the dollar is not terribly weak.

I doubt a BLUE WAVE is coming, but if one comes then I expect FSAGX to surge out of speculation of impeaching POTUS which would dent the markets more than the shrugs of Mueller and Manafort drama.

A lot can happen. I expect the Dow Jones to be on the rise a bit.

economic variables are garbage, pt. 2

As I drove to Ace Hardware to fill my propane tank before grilling steaks Saturday, I listened to the radio.
Weekend radio is usually junk. Crank doctors and crank money managers fill the airways with gibberish. I find myself listening just to know of what to be skeptical.

Hearing the substance of the program saying: Trump is popular, but how long will the stock market record highs? GDP, Low Unemployment and other variables are meaningless until you consider 2008 and how the bond market was weird... like it is today.

Seemed odd coincidence considering how dismissive Bob Sullivan was of GDP and other variables just the day before, but Bob was hung up on savings being an indicator, rather than government bond yields.

I see a housing bubble. I don't think Twitter and Facebook are going to be strong companies long term. I hate Amazon for I see it as being the reason Sears, Kmart, and Toys "R" Us have declined or disppeared. I am very skeptical of cryptocurrency.

Imagine Twitter without Donald Trump. That's the end of Twitter.

Economic variables are garbage?

The other day, journalist Bob Sullivan pondered whether the economy would tank if Trump news was truly bad.
Just kidding, he seemed amazed the markets aren't tanking because Trump is on the verge of impeachment.
Perhaps the latter is mind reading, but he said he suspects the markets don't care about Trump's legal issues or the matters are already baked into the markets, hence the shrug.
Today, Bob wrote a confusing piece about the economy's strength or weakness being impossible to say based on standard indicators.
Maybe, I am mind reading, but I get the impression Bob doesn't think the economy is doing well. He dismisses the stock market, low unemployment and GDP... Perhaps his being a journalist is why he is not convinced the economy is doing well.
I'm not saying it sucks to be a journalist, but print media is vanishing, aside from The Athletic, I mean.

Modern slavery in America

I saw the other day a prisoner strike was planned throughout the USA. Prisoners were uniting to protest slavery. Prison reform is an interest of mine, so I bookmarked the story. It's easier to blog on the desktop but my bookmarks are on my phone, so google brought up the most recent strike related story, meh. The slavery gist is there in the content, but the headline is about caging people like animals. The argument seems to mock the undocumented child separation situation at the border, considering no one wants known criminals being free to rape and kill innocent women and children.

Regardless, the 13th Amendment abolished slavery but excluded punishment for crime. Given the cost of incarcerating criminals is obscene, I don't consider their argument about working for "slave wages" sound when they cost the taxpayer a teacher's salary while not compensating those they harmed.

Prison reform is very much needed, but at the same time, I want my family to not be the victim of a crime. When I saw the news that the body of Molly Tibbets was found, I was sad. When I heard that she had in fact been stalked and murdered, I was angry. The whole immigration status of Molly's murderer is a moot point to me, for what happened to Molly and her family is horrible. Anyone capable of taking another person's life in such a manner probably deserves to be locked up like an animal. I might even turn a blind eye to such a monster being dragged out into the street and publicly executed.

I have a bad feeling that the immigration status of the Molly's killer will conflate the "build the wall" argument with prison reform. Prisons have walls. America is not a prison state. I have nothing against immigrants coming to the country legally. Maybe the porous nature of our borders gives the illusion immigration laws don't exist? If there are continuous walls, then there can be gates where documentation can be taken upon entrance. If documentation exists, then the illegal element gets eliminated.

Will Trump news tank markets?

As you may know, I'm a consumer of news via multiple Twitter profiles which gives me a wide range of views. I happen to like reading Bob Sullivan, though his politics aren't exactly aligned with mine, I value his insight, just as much as I feel about Dejan for things related to baseball.

Today, Bob expressed surprise at the markets.
I really don't see the Cohen and Manafort criminal news being bad for President Trump, thus not bad for the markets. Mr. Trump was implicated as having his attorney pay blackmail. If the attorney knew it was a crime to pay blackmail, then why did he do it? Seems odd how much effort Cohen put into his shell company to pay the blackmail, if everything related to the outcome was illegal.

Russia collusion is missing in the stories. Without Russia collusion, how can there be obstruction? Firing FBI personnel seems like obstruction until you consider they were doing sketchy FBI work.

I wonder how long Cohen lasts in prison. Majority of "white nationalists" are in prison, right?

Bob Sullivan has a lot in common with DK. Both are journalists who spent considerable time working for established news outlets, only to set out on his own. Both think their opinion should be the last word.

Bob's venture doesn't seem to be doing too well.

Considering 90% of all news about Trump had been negative back in March, it's probably a good thing Bob has given up on being a paid market observer if he considers the market's current "shrug" head scratching, right?

Fidelity IRA

Gold has dropped a bit. I expect the housing market to be a bubble... thus I think FSAGX is a buy with it being under $18.50.

Since I don't add to my Fidelity IRA, I utilize SPHIX to grow my account. It's a rather stable mutual fund... but I like it because it has a monthly dividend equal to 5.3% growth.

I've developed a system of selling SPHIX to buy FSAGX, for I expect the latter to bounce back from its recent low of $15.77. I've held onto FSAGX long enough to have lost money, only because it had been north of $47 prior to the fiscal cliff crisis fizzled and I held onto a huge chunk after the last bump of $27+ following the Brexit vote. At least, I sold big 2 years ago, and am now cautiously buying. I expect it to go further down to around $15.37, but it bounced up Friday to $16.11.

401(k) Millionaire

Affirmations dictate I will someday be a millionaire. USA Today published that Fidelity has a record number 401(k) millionaires. 
I probably think about my 401(k)s too frequently, but I want to retire one day. I'll 40 soon. I've had 401(k) at 5 different jobs. Usually, I worked part-time, so the 6-10% didn't amount to much upon my severing ties. $1,200 from Target. $1,200 from the hospital. $8,000 from the career college. $5,000 from the car wash. I've rolled those into an IRA at Fidelity. I'm not adding to it since my employer utilizes Vanguard, so I'm pretty conservative with my Fidelity stash. It's been up towards $20k and down towards $13k, which seems volatile rather than conservative, but I've a long view approach based on gold and high interest mutual funds with dividends.
Meanwhile, I'm attempting to max out contributions into my Vanguard account. At $18,500 a year for 25 years, I expect to be very close to my "goal" of being a millionaire. Probably won't be much given inflation, but it's a goal. Everything else I'm doing with my finances is systems based to make the 401(k) be viable means of retirement.

thoughts on soybeans while kids are in cages

Not sure of all the variables in the trade wars, but one thing I see is the media remarking upon farmers trusting President Trump's decisions despite the potential downfall of their corn and soybeans being blocked abroad. Three months ago, the pending trade war was said to surely ruin farmers. Crazy to think three months have gone since the spat was started yet nothing major has occurred to push the kids in cages narrative away.
Seems odd that there are millions of hungry Americans, yet the media is concerned about the soybeans and corn not being sold to the Chinese. The infamous Farm Bill is always made out as a slush fund for farmers to not actually have to act profit oriented or competitive given the trade off with SNAP. Why not make the SNAP money limited to those crops like soybeans and corn affected by the tariffs?
WTO probably frowns upon such things.
Speaking of the kids in cages, why hasn't Mexico offered to pay to build the wall to make the family separation scenario seem like a hostage situation rather than the reality of criminals being incarcerated? Everyone knows bank robbers don't get their kids sent to prison/jail with them upon arrest, so the kids in cages would seem more horrid if pallets of money were shipped to help bring families together.
Speaking of tariffs and of the wall, a lot of  steel could be used for that wall.
Since there isn't a balanced budget amendment, the government will always be hell-bent on deficit spending.
Given deficit spending seems out of control, I see most budgetary problems as being exaggerated for the sake of making political points.

bored

Not sure if I'm bored, but I'm not seeing the reason for people being bothered by President Trump's first term. The immigration thing has occurred for some time. No one had the courage to fix it, so it's a no win situation if you want to enforce the law.
No one wants kids in cages, but it's better than dead or being trafficked.
There's been a pause on a number of things.
The Mueller thing seems to be nothing, if the kids in cages is the biggest thing.
NRA haters have been peak with the journos being targetted last week.
Meh, Congress was shot at a year before, yet no one cared half as much.
Part of me expects October surprises.

Trump gives me hope

Before I went MAGA, I was skeptical of Trump. I was sick to my stomach that he destroyed Ted Cruz and got the nomination until I figured he probably had a better shot at beating Hillary due to the fact that Cruz was not viable in my wife's opinion.

The promises Trump made were broad and vague but very much under the MAGA umbrella.

• Build the wall
• repeal Obamacare
• SCOTUS
• scrapping unbalanced trade deals
• tax reform
• fixing climate deals
• fixing Iran deal
• fixing North Korea's nuke threat

Trump has kicked the tires on all of the above fronts. Only a third of way through his first term, yet so many coals are in the fire being stoked by nothing given the 24/7 negative news about FBI investigations going no where fast.. The economy has been chugging along with the price of gold dipping to pre-Brexit ranges. Gold is a barometer I use as a hedge against everything... since I foolishly feared the "fiscal cliff." 

The housing market worries me. Everything is selling fast and nothing seems to be left in modestly priced ranges... much like 2005.

Trump being a builder in his former life almost surprises me given the lack of building he has spearheaded as president.

I predicted prison reform, I totally expect affordable housing to be a huge Trump initiative. There's so much federal land that is available.

Baseball

Ever since I can remember, I have been a fan of baseball. I cried when Tony Pena was traded. I probably cried when Johnny Ray was traded, too.

Looking back at old baseball cards a while back, I saw lots of names I had never seen or recalled. They had terrible numbers, yet became immortalized on a card. I found myself wondering, why did the suck so bad if they were good enough for the majors.

Chad Hermansen comes to mind. He never panned out. He got to the majors and never did much beyond strike out a lot. He lost the mojo or something once he got sent back to AAA.

Adam Hyzdu wasn't hateful but he didn't have much of a career.

Regardless, baseball is a team sport with a lot of individual players that aren't at all alike. The variables for baseball stats to be relevant beyond traditional stats was made into movie, right?

I personally believe most managers are irrational. Jim Leyland was a genius in his day, yet had Jay Bell lay down a sac bunt regularly in the 1st inning ahead of Andy Van Slyke. The same line-up had Barry Bonds batting 5th, being protected by Sid Bream.

I believe pitching is overrated. Having a script to get to closer is flawed if you rely upon a guy who could get injured in the wink of an eye.

I heard that Kevin Cash had a reliever start a couple games in a series. Novel idea, but very practical considering starting pitchers are expensive and only pitch once or twice a week.

I love the NL. Pitchers who can hit amaze me. Position players who can mop up by pitching humor me.

Data exists that running the numbers for best matchups for each game of each opponent can be done without having the regular 8 penciled day in and day out.

I dream of the day a pitching staff has 8-9 pitchers who all log 162 innings for the season while each position has a left and right handed hitting variable to insert into the lineup.

Fielding, speed, bunting for base hits and pinch hitting abilities would dictate line-ups beyond the opposing pitcher's particular dexterity.

Some hitters are good fast ball hitters. Some feed on offspeed pitches.

So many ball games are decided by a few runs or less... I believe managers cause more losses from mistakes than the stats reveal.

I dream of a expansion team drafting from subpar players who have various skillsets that mesh into a winning team concept. No fanbase wants their team to be blownup and be used as theoretical enterprise employing nobodies....

Solar disappointment

As I said in my previous installment, I am looking to kill time more productively.
I'm failing miserably. I'm still stuck following certain things that are wastes of time. Twitter is a time bandit... but I only have myself to blame.
I shouldn't follow sports.
I shouldn't follow the stock market closely.
My reading topics that I perused were: solar power, home repair, and being a land lord.
Solar power is way too unrealistic for my current situation. Buying stuff from Harbor Freight always looks cool and affordable, but the kit you buy doesn't set itself up and lacks some of the essentials. I'm  probably too lazy and lacking of funds to set up something worthwhile.
Home repair is an open ended matter. I have a number of unfinished projects that simply need me to focus my energy. I find excuses for not doing things... like not having a mitersaw or money to pay someone else.
Investment property isn't going to land in my lap, so it's foolish to pursue entertain the thought, right?
I wish I was wired differently. I just lack the drive to finish stuff and get distracted by unrealistic interests and things that aren't important in the grand scheme of things.
Moments like now, I hate free will for I can only blame myself for the majority of my shortcomings.
Theorectically, I put stuff out here to say I looked into things, and affirmed my home and existing personal stuff need focus before thinking of other matters such as solar power and investment property. 

summer reading - exploring better hobbies

Having spent considerable time avoiding being productive or advancing my skill set, I decided to do some cheap self-investment through reading library books.

Given my previous post, I am exploring real estate investment. I have always had interest in houses. Much like reading job postings, I enjoyed reading house listings. Given that I do not have the funds nor time to invest into such endeavors, I need to focus on my current home before moving onto pipe dreams.

I'm cutting sports from my time consumption diet. I should cut my 401(k) obsession along with following the news cycle that seems stuck since November 8, 2016.

Speaking of pipe dreams, I have dreams of making my shed a man cave. It's a small barn, which we currently use for storage, but I'd like to have electricity out there. I would like to have it be solar powered, hence off the grid.

I got a book out from the library that appeared relevant, Do It Yourself 12 Volt SOLAR POWER, but 17 pages in, I find it comical. It's translated from German with an idealistic premise of living off the grid in a van or yurt. Probably not going to do me much good to read the whole thing, but I find solar power intriguing. I doubt I will be less knowledgeable, so it should have benefit, right?

Time's take on making side money to quit your real job

Read this old article Time tweeted about making enough side money to quit your job.

It made me chuckle.

1. Real Estate investment takes money.
2. Writing a book is easy. Finding someone willing to pay for it is another story. I actually started writing a book in '96, but I stopped because I lacked worldly experience to properly develop characters.
3. Sell a product on Amazon?
4. Sell your skills?
5. Blogging!

Seriously, I've tried to blog for money, but I have nothing anyone wants to read it seems. My tweets aren't worthy of getting followers, beyond a static 80. I have stuff that isn't being said, yet nothing catches on. I guess I don't trash Trump, so my feed isn't going to catch on. Suppressed? Perhaps the shadow ban is real enough that there's a pre-shadow ban? I know I'm not dumb, yet I must be missing something key beyond interacting with strangers. I'm joking. Dale Carnegie said in his book, people only care about themselves, so you have to indulge their ego if you hope to be successful in getting anything in return.

I need to create better twitter content, or at least dumb it down. Substweeting seems more necessary than I ever could guess. Nothing piques interest than being left out of a conversation. Obviously, I need to follow the biggies and comment on their inane stuff if I want to generate an opening. Sounds fake. Perhaps most people are fake, and that's why I have trouble following their point. 

I have multiple Twitter accounts. I could have multiple profiles to experiment with traffic flow. and such. If I were to be anti-Trump, I'd get the most followers quickly, I'm afraid. That said, I can be deranged in the tongue in cheek sarcastic way that would make Scott Adams proud. I really don't get TDS, but I never got the Obama stuff either.

Money isn't everything

I could have gone for a full-time position, but I don't want to have the full-timer's obligations to work whenever called upon. I can say "no" to over-time or changes in my schedule, which I do when it comes to my family coming first.
I took the job with the intention of being part-time. I get double the hours I am guaranteed, so I'm working as much as a full-timer.
When I got promoted from handler to courier, my wages exploded. I have another raise coming in a couple weeks. I won't notice it. I've bumped my 401(k) contributions up to 35%. I'm not at the point of maxing out, but I'm higher than I ever anticipated a year ago.
Trying to keep our AGI under $63K and pay off all our credit card debt before accruing significant interest. I opened a new card with a 0% interest rate for 18 months with $0 transfer fee.
Can I pay off $15k in 18 months without accruing fees? Probably, but it's tempting to bump up the 401(k) contributions to the max and taking it out as a loan and paying back the loan ASAP.
Biggest reason to not take out such a loan is the burden of paying it back if you lose your job. I'm not fazed by the missing out on market advances given the up and down movement of the market and the interest I'm paying on the loan is means to contribute beyond max out, I think.
Tempting to try to pay off the mortgage the same way.

Easy money

How much extra money is there to make without actually working?
We started Ibotta back in May and have slowly gotten $210 in our account. 
I've made over $250 in cash back from my Discover card since last March. We're getting a double bonus come April.
I have cash back deal with my Sam's credit card and my American Express card as well. I made roughly $200 cashback combined from those two cards.
All the cashback and rebates add up, but they'll always be correlated to an imposed debt, so I'm not getting rich.
There's got to be a way to earn easy $ without spending money in the first place.